BTC / USD
BTC Hourly Price Prediction
Every hour, we generate a BTC end-of-hour price prediction within a ±$100 win range using Kalshi prediction market probabilities, Polymarket cross-reference, and real-time technical analysis. We track every call — wins, losses, and how close we got.
AI Direction · BTC · Hourly
Partial data (1)
⚠ STALE
conf
55%
edge
13¢
vs kalshi
58¢
[STALE] Spot is just below the 65700 strike at 65695, the last 15-min momentum is slightly negative (-0.019%), funding is negative and deepening suggesting net short bias, and OI has risen modestly, all pointing to modest downside pressure that makes settling below the strike slightly more likely than the 58-cent Kalshi implied prob suggests.
Track record: 203W–159L · 56%
Generated 1.3 hr ago
Resolves 01:00 UTC
End-of-Hour Prediction
$65,332
Win range: $65,232 – $65,432 (±$100)
↓ $69 from $65,401 at prediction time
--:--
until hour end
Created
6:05 PM PDT
24H Sentiment
▲ Bullish
189 above vs 1 below markets
TA Trend (24H)
▶ Neutral
EMA20 > EMA50 · RSI 73 overbought · near BB upper
Support / Resistance
$64,660 – $65,790
Support: EMA20 · Resistance: BB Upper
Suggested Entry (Buy)
$65,523
Pullback 0.3× ATR · SL $64,547 · TP $65,790
Track Record
Predictions
1362
all-time
Wins
820
within ±$100
Losses
542
Win Rate
60.2%
Avg Closeness
$179
avg miss
Streak
1 losss
Win = actual BTC price at hour end within ±$100 of prediction. See full history →
Model Self-Calibration · 1388 predictions learned
Confidence Offset
-7.4%
global calibration
↑ Up Bias
-0.2%
WR 64% · 829 preds
↓ Down Bias
-1.7%
WR 57% · 559 preds
TA Boost
+1.5%
aligned 62% vs 58%
Last update 12:05 AM PDT: ta_boost 0.020→0.015 (aligned WR 62% vs opposed 58%)