BTC / USD
BTC Hourly Price Prediction
Every hour, we generate a BTC end-of-hour price prediction within a ±$100 win range using Kalshi prediction market probabilities, Polymarket cross-reference, and real-time technical analysis. We track every call — wins, losses, and how close we got.
AI Direction · BTC · Next Hour
Partial data (1)
⚠ STALE
conf
52%
edge
4¢
vs kalshi
26¢
kalshi action
BET NO
[STALE] Spot is ~$44 below the $77,300 strike with very low momentum (90-min change <0.1%), range compressed under $95, and mildly positive funding/OI suggesting no strong squeeze catalyst, making settlement above strike unlikely.
Track record: 462W–456L · 50%
Generated 6.9 hr ago
Resolves 06:00 UTC
End-of-Hour Prediction
$76,807
Win range: $76,707 – $76,907 (±$100)
↑ $0 from $76,807 at prediction time
--:--
until hour end
Created
5:21 AM PDT
24H Sentiment
▲ Bullish
189 above vs 1 below markets
TA Trend (24H)
▼ Bearish
EMA20 < EMA50 · RSI 38 · near BB lower
Support / Resistance
$76,677 – $77,040
Support: BB Lower · Resistance: EMA20
Suggested Entry (Buy)
$76,677
At support · SL $76,380 · TP $77,040
Track Record
Predictions
3168
all-time
Wins
1869
within ±$100
Losses
1299
Win Rate
59.0%
Avg Closeness
$163
avg miss
Streak
2 losss
Win = actual BTC price at hour end within ±$100 of prediction. See full history →
Model Self-Calibration · 3194 predictions learned
Confidence Offset
-6.8%
global calibration
↑ Up Bias
-0.7%
WR 61% · 1902 preds
↓ Down Bias
-1.8%
WR 57% · 1292 preds
TA Boost
+0.9%
aligned 59% vs 57%
Last update 12:07 AM PDT: up_bias -0.012→-0.007 (up WR 62% over 1601 preds)