BTC / USD
BTC Hourly Price Prediction
Every hour, we generate a BTC end-of-hour price prediction within a ±$100 win range using Kalshi prediction market probabilities, Polymarket cross-reference, and real-time technical analysis. We track every call — wins, losses, and how close we got.
AI Direction · BTC · Next Hour
Partial data (1)
↓ DOWN
conf
52%
edge
2¢
vs kalshi
60¢
kalshi action
NO TRADE
Spot is currently ~46 above the 80399.99 strike with mild downward drift over the last 90 minutes but still comfortably above the strike, mildly positive OI growth, and stable near-zero funding suggest the strike resolves YES with ~62% probability, modestly above Kalshi's implied 60%.
Track record: 1008W–976L · 51%
Safer YES opportunities
display only · price is YES ask
| Kalshi Contract | Price To Buy YES | AI Chance Of YES | AI Edge | How To Read It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above $80,400 · selected | 61¢ | 62% | +1¢ | Skip: little or no price edge |
| Above $80,300 | 77¢ | 74% | -3¢ | Skip: little or no price edge |
| Above $80,200 | 89¢ | 83% | -6¢ | Skip: little or no price edge |
| Above $80,100 | 95¢ | 91% | -4¢ | Skip: little or no price edge |
Generated 18 min ago
Resolves 15:00 UTC
End-of-Hour Prediction
$80,470
Win range: $80,370 – $80,570 (±$100)
↓ $39 from $80,509 at prediction time
--:--
until hour end
Created
7:19 AM PDT
24H Sentiment
▲ Bullish
189 above vs 1 below markets
TA Trend (24H)
▲ Bullish
EMA20 > EMA50 · RSI 44 · near BB lower
Support / Resistance
$80,338 – $80,463
Support: BB Lower · Resistance: Swing High
Suggested Entry (Buy)
$80,338
Near support · SL $79,808 · TP $80,463
Track Record
Predictions
4107
all-time
Wins
2369
within ±$100
Losses
1738
Win Rate
57.7%
Avg Closeness
$161
avg miss
Streak
1 wins
Win = actual BTC price at hour end within ±$100 of prediction. See full history →
Model Self-Calibration · 4133 predictions learned
Confidence Offset
-7.4%
global calibration
↑ Up Bias
-1.2%
WR 60% · 2408 preds
↓ Down Bias
-2.3%
WR 55% · 1725 preds
TA Boost
+0.3%
aligned 57% vs 57%
Last update 5:05 PM PDT: ta_boost 0.009→0.003 (aligned WR 57% vs opposed 57%)